I realize that the baseball season is still very very young, however, I'm struck by how un-hopeful I am this year. At this point, I almost always genuinely believe (and can quite passionately argue) for the potential of the Cubs season. I'm not sure if it's the overhyped $300 million offseason spending or the disappointment of Lou being named the manager or just the general status of the Cubs pitching this year, but I'm not optimistic. Despite the fact that the NL Central is certainly not one of the toughest divisions (although I would argue it is one of the more exciting as almost all the teams you could make a case for winning the division and that can't be said about many divisions.... although it's more due to a lack of great teams and an abundance of ok teams rather than anything else), I really don't feel like the Cubs are going to be a contender. I think it may due to the fact that although the Cubs certainly spent money in the offseason, I don't think they addressed ANY of the major holes from the team last year. Or if they did address it, didn't solve it. Take a look:
Major Problem of 2006: Consistent Starting Rotation
Addressed by: Signing Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis and Confidence in Wade Miller and Prior's ability to heal.
I'll concede the Ted Lilly signing was good (although probably overpaid) but I'll give them kudos on this. They brought in a pitcher (left-handed even!) that will be able to keep us in games and not overtax the bullpen. I'm not going to justify the Marquis signing with a comment. I would say this did not address any hole because I'm quite confident ANY of minor league pitchers could produce the same consistency and wins that Marquis will (or possibly more...) And the abillity of Miller and Prior to heal... Prior makes more sense to me than Miller since he's still young and has such unbelievable potential (although apparently is cursed) But Miller. Really? You're going to place alot of your confidence in improving the team in a rehabbing guy who was NEVER that great. Rehabbing from major surgery. Not smart. Not smart at all.
Major Problem of 2006: Closer
Addressed by: n/a
Apparently the Cubs leadership did not watch Dempster struggle all year long. Blow games. VERY RARELY be dominant. In my opinion, this was a critical area to be addressed in the offseason because nothing hurts more than a blown save. Especially after a valiant effort by a starting pitcher, middle relief, good defense, good hitting. While there aren't any studies on this, I have to believe in terms of morale and momentum, a blown save has to have an effect of the mental state of the team in the next coming days. If I'm a teammate, after I bust my ass for a win and watch it fall at the last minute, it makes it doubly painful to bust my ass the following day. Am I wrong? Maybe, but I personally just wanted a season with a closer other than Dempster. I think I need it to feel confident in the Club.
Major Problem of 2006: n/a
Addressed by: Signing Soriano for an ungodly amount of money
Notice, this is a solution without a problem. Yes, Juan Pierre did leave for free agency, but before had definitely indicated he wanted to stay with the Cubs. And I realize that he got off to a slow start last year, but be most definitely was not a major reason that the Cubs struggled in '06. I'm not saying Soriano might not be a slight improvement to Pierre (I think it's probably undeniable that it's true) but I just don't see it as addressing a major problem of the '06 team.
Major Problem of 2006: Anemic offense
Addressed by: Signing Soriano, extending Aramis' contract, bringing in DeRosa (?) and Floyd, confidence in Lee's ability to heal.
I already addressed Soriano. I think Lee healing was a reasonable move and I thought the Aramis contract extension wasn't necessarily bad (although probably again inflated...). DeRosa, while he has started off pretty excellently, I have to confess I certainly wasn't impressed by his signing. I'm sorry I don't feel like he's the answer to the Cubs problems. I really don't. Especially when last season we had Todd Walker. Maybe I'm wrong (because really I don't know much about him and his start has been excellent) but I don't see DeRosa as being a step up from Walker.
What could the Cubs have done? I'm not sure, but this just doesn't seem like it's going to help.
All in all, I'm not overly worried about the offense because I do believe 2006 was largely an injury-plagued aberration that sufferred largely by being out of a game early on by the wonders of the pitching staff. But without pitching, we've got nothing. And I don't really think we have pitching. I'd rather see young kids maturing into future stars than watching Wade Miller blow games. Oh and since this has been overly negative I should say, I do believe Rich Hill is the real deal and will be fantastic. As will Big Z (despite his recent struggles) will have a good year.
I just wish I was more optimistic in general with their chances. Perhaps I'm just becoming more cynical about life in general.
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